The importance of U.S. policy actions and its agri-food market for Canada requires a broad knowledge and understanding of its many complex components. It encompasses the dynamics of U.S. federal government finance, domestic economic policy, and trade policy. These factors are continuing in flux and deepening, creating increased volatility and risks to the Canadian agri-food economy.  

An Independent Agri-Food Policy Note released by Agri-Food Economic Systems develops the conceptual and empirical background to help understand the situation, and help Canadian agri-food prepare for what may be coming.

“The new U.S. administration is engaged in a wrenching struggle to deliver on promised tax cuts and deportations, in the face of already burdensome federal deficits and debt and an economy operating at full employment,” says Douglas Hedley, Agri-Food Economic Systems research associate and co-author of the paper. “What’s at stake is the potential for sharp changes in inflation, interest rates, currency valuations, and US-international trade relations -- and that could just be the beginning.”

The policy note develops the conceptual framework for the core of the U.S. Administration’s policy agenda and applies the most recently available data to it. This reveals the central objectives, potential outcomes, and potential realities that Canadian agri-food should be anticipating and preparing for. 

“The whirlwind emanating from Washington is resetting the table for Canada’s economic and trade relations with the U.S.”, says Al Mussell, Agri-Food Economic Systems research lead and co-author of the paper. “We must assume that the policy resets the U.S. makes -- from macroeconomic policy, to regulatory policy, to trade policy -- will become the table stakes in its future trade and foreign policy discussions with Canada. Many of these U.S. actions are driven by America First, and not intended to be in the Canadian interest.  We need to understand this in-depth, and determine how best we can respond.” 

The Policy Note can be accessed at www.agrifoodecon.ca  Agri-Food Economic Systems Inc. is an independent economic research organization dedicated to agriculture and food located in Rockwood, Ontario.

Source: Agri-Food Economic Systems April 22, 2025 news release