Canada’s Food Price Report 2024 forecasts that overall food prices will increase by 2.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent. The average family of four is expected to spend $16,297.20 on food in 2024, an increase of up to $701.79 from last year. The most significant increases range from five to seven per cent in the categories of bakery, meat, and vegetables.

This marks the 14th edition of Canada’s Food Price Report, an annual collaboration between research partners Dalhousie University, the University of Guelph, the University of Saskatchewan, and the University of British Columbia. This cross-country research team uses historical data sources, machine learning algorithms, and predictive analytics tools to make predictions about Canadian food prices. Within this interdisciplinary approach, scholars from the participating universities contribute insights and expertise from diverse fields. 

Despite inflation, Canadians are spending less on food this year. Food retail sales data indicates a decline in monthly spend per capita between August 2022 and August 2023 (from $261.24 to $252.89). Estimated annual spending for a family of four in the past year was $693 lower than originally projected. However, this decrease is a concern to researchers. Reduced expenditures in the face of elevated food prices indicates Canadians are decreasing the quantity and quality of food they are buying. 

Customers are losing trust in food sector corporations. There is a prevailing sentiment that grocers profit excessively and exploit inflationary trends. Profiteering and price gouging were common media stories. Canada Bread Company pled guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act. In 2023, industry employees felt empowered to seek improved wages and working conditions, with strikes occurring at Sobeys, Metro Inc., British Columbia ports, the St. Lawrence Seaway, Rogers Sugar Refinery, and Windsor Salt. These disputes resulted in product shortages and shipping delays.

In general, researchers insist that this report predicts better prospects for consumers in 2024. Andrea Rankin, research associate at the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, says the report “offers some good news” and provides “some relief…Canadians can anticipate possibly calmer food prices through the coming year.”

Source:  Agri-Food Analytics Lab December 7, 2023 news release