After record-breaking production in 2023, apple growers expect another high-performing year with a large crop, according to a new report released by the U.S. Apple Association (USApple) at the organization’s 129^th annual Outlook Conference in Chicago.

USApple’s Industry Outlook 2024* provides the most up-to-date data and analysis on U.S. and global apple production, utilization and trade. Authored by USApple vice president of insights and analytics, Chris Gerlach, the report takes an in-depth look at the trends and forces – from political headwinds to weather events – that shape the U.S. apple industry.

*The Outlook Report is based on recently released United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates. After the presentation of those numbers, USApple members meet in-person to discuss current growing conditions to formulate a more up-to-date production estimate. The final USApple 2024/25 crop year forecast is an adjustment of the USDA numbers based on those conversations.

U.S. production

According to USApple’s analysis, total U.S. apple production for the 2024/25 crop year (CY) will be 259,517,252 million bushels. This represents a 10.1 per cent decrease compared to last year’s final production figure.

“Growers from across the U.S. are reporting the crop quality is excellent,” said Gerlach.

These figures are more comprehensive than USDA data, which only look at the top seven apple-producing states. 

USApple analyzes the production from states outside of the top seven and adds that back into USDA’s figure. It also incorporates feedback from growers based on what they’re seeing in the field every day.

Varietal mix

At the varietal level, Gala is expected to retain the top spot with more than 48 million bushels produced, accounting for around 17 per cent of the U.S. apple market. After Gala, rounding out the top five are Red Delicious (12.3%), Granny Smith (10%), Honeycrsip (9.8%) and Fuji (9.4%). 

In general, the varieties on the rise include Honeycrisp, Pink Lady/Cripps Pink and Cosmic Crisp. Fuji, Rome and “other” varieties have remained relatively consistent compared to 2019/20 production volumes. Varieties on the decline include Gala and Red Delicious.

“We still see strong Honeycrisp production, but it’s tempered this year,” said Gerlach. “With volumes aligning more closely with Gala and Red Delicious, we may see production levels stabilize rather than increase dramatically in the future.”

Final USApple Production Forecast, including states

Production levels measured in 42-pound bushels

Source: US Apple Association August 16, 2024 news release