Value Chain Management International (VCMI), an Oakville-based research and management consultancy, has released a new think piece examining the causes and consequences of food inflation in Canada between 2019 and 2025.

The full report “Food Inflation in Canada: Winners, Losers, and the Path Forward (2019–2025),” is available HERE; the executive summary can be accessed HERE.

The report reveals that the average Canadian food basket rose 34 per cent over six years, far outpacing general inflation. The sharp increase has disproportionately impacted low- and middle-income households, with the lowest-income families now spending nearly 30 per cent of their disposable income on food. Meanwhile, food insecurity has climbed to alarming levels, potentially affecting up to one in three Canadians.

“Our findings show that food inflation is not just an economic statistic — it is a social crisis,” said Dr. Martin Gooch, CEO of VCMI. “Lower-income Canadians are being squeezed hardest, while structural issues in the food system continue to fuel volatility.”

The think piece also explores how cost pressures have been transmitted along the food value chain, identifying clear winners and losers:

• -  Farmers tied to global markets gained temporarily, but many others were hit by drought and rising input costs.
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• -  Retailers saw margins increase despite absorbing some upstream costs.
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• -  Consumers faced the greatest financial strain, altering shopping habits and nutrition choices.

The report emphasizes that the only sustainable path forward lies in productivity gains, strategic innovation and greater collaboration across Canada’s food value chain.

VCMI is calling on both government and industry to act decisively: investing in infrastructure, research and skills; adopting value chain management practices; and proactively partnering on the creation of a more resilient, adaptive food system. 

 

“Canada cannot afford to treat food inflation as business-as-usual,” added Gooch. “We need to view the food system as one interconnected chain. By improving productivity and fostering collaboration, we can reduce cost pressures and safeguard Canadians’ access to affordable, nutritious food.”

For more information please contact Dr. Martin Gooch. 416-997-7779; martin@vcm-international.com 

Source: Value Chain Management International Inc. October 16, 2025 news release