The U.S. Apple Association (USApple) has released its Industry Outlook 2026 report, a comprehensive analysis of the economic forces shaping the U.S. apple industry. Drawing on the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data and USApple analysis, the report examines production, grower economics, varietal trends, trade and global markets.

Changes to the 2026/27 USApple crop estimate: As always, the Industry Outlook report uses USDA’s numbers. In previous years, industry representatives have decided to adjust those figures based on what they’re seeing in their regions. This year, while some states have elected to continue that tradition, other states have decided not to comment. The absence of an adjusted number from a state or region should not be interpreted as agreement with or validation of USDA’s estimate.

Given that not all regions are participating in the adjustment process this year, USApple will not publish a final adjusted national crop estimate for 2026/27.

State level USApple crop estimates:

• -  California: 4 million bushels
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• -  Michigan: 25+ million bushels (Michigan industry representatives believe USDA's estimate is too low, but did not provide an adjusted figure).
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• -  New York: 29 million bushels 
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• -  Pennsylvania: 5.8 million bushels 
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• -  Virginia: 1.3 million bushels 

Key findings from the Industry Outlook report include:

U.S. Production
 

Based on USDA's latest production estimate and USApple's analysis of production in states not included in USDA's annual survey, total U.S. apple production for the 2026/27 crop year (CY) is forecast at:

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• -  263 million bushels
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• -  Down 7% from last year
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• -  3% below the five-year production average

“The story this season really varies by region,” said Chris Gerlach, USApple vice president and author of the Outlook report. “In areas that struggled with drought last year, growing conditions have improved, and we’re hearing encouraging reports about fruit quality. Other regions, particularly parts of the mid-Atlantic, have faced significant weather-related challenges that will affect production. There’s still plenty of growing season ahead, and packouts will ultimately give us a clearer picture, but overall we’re encouraged by the crop we’re seeing across much of the country.”

State Production

At the state level, according to USDA:

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• - Washington remains the nation’s top producer at approximately 176 million bushels, down 2% from last season.
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• -  New York holds the No. 2 spot at approximately 32 million bushels, down 10%.
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• -  Michigan is expected to produce 25 million bushels, down 1%.
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• -  Pennsylvania is forecast at 5 million bushels, down 58% following significant spring freeze damage.
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• -  California is expected to produce approximately 4.5 million bushels, up 1%.
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• -  Oregon is forecast at approximately 3.8 million bushels, essentially flat from last season.
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• -  Virginia is expected to produce approximately 1.8 million bushels, down 48% following significant spring freeze damage.

USApple also estimates that states outside USDA’s top seven will collectively produce approximately 15 million bushels.

Varietal Mix

At the varietal level, Gala is expected to retain the top spot with nearly 42 million bushels, accounting for approximately 16% of U.S. production. The top five varieties are:

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• -  Gala – nearly 42 million bushels (16%)
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• -  Red Delicious – approximately 30 million bushels (12%)
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• -  Granny Smith – approximately 30 million bushels (11%)
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• -  Honeycrisp – approximately 27 million bushels (10%)
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• -  Other varieties – approximately 25 million bushels (9%)
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• -  Fuji – approximately 23 million bushels (9%)

The varietal mix continues to evolve. Over the past five years, Granny Smith, Honeycrisp, Cosmic Crisp® and Pink Lady/Cripps Pink have increased production, while Gala, Red Delicious and Fuji have declined.

“The varietal mix continues to evolve as growers respond to changing consumer preferences and market conditions,” said Gerlach. “It’s one of the most important long-term trends we track because planting decisions made today can shape the market for decades.”

Trade

U.S. fresh apple exports strengthened during the 2025/26 crop year (July–June), while imports declined, pushing the U.S. fresh apple trade surplus to nearly 41 million bushels, valued at more than $1 billion.

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• -  Exports: nearly 45 million bushels, up 2%
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• -  Imports: approximately 4 million bushels, down 12%
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• -  Net exports: nearly 41 million bushels
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• -  Value of net exports: more than $1 billion

Mexico and Canada remain by far the most important markets for U.S. apples. Exports to Mexico increased 12% to 17.5 million bushels, while exports to Canada increased 20% to 8.3 million bushels. Mexico represents 39% of all U.S. apple exports and Canada 19%. Together, the two markets purchased nearly $650 million in U.S. fresh apples.

“Exports are critical to the economic health of the U.S. apple industry, particularly as technology and improved growing practices allow growers to produce more fruit on each acre,” said Gerlach. “The growth we saw in Mexico and Canada this year is encouraging, but it also underscores just how important stable trading relationships with those countries are to U.S. growers. At the same time, there is tremendous opportunity to regain market share and open new high-value markets around the world.”

Industry Economics

Beyond production, the report examines the financial pressures facing U.S. apple growers, including labor and other input costs that have risen considerably over the last few years.

Labor accounts for approximately 60% of apple production costs, making recent changes to the H-2A guest worker program particularly meaningful for growers. At the same time, farm-gate apple prices have spent extended periods near or below estimated production costs for several major varieties.

“The long-term health of the industry depends on growers’ ability to earn a return that supports the viability of their operations,” said Gerlach. “USApple’s efforts to secure lasting reforms to the H-2A guest worker program are an important part of that equation—helping address one of growers’ largest production costs and bring expenses and returns into better balance.”

Global Context

The United States remains the world's second-largest apple producer is approximately 263 million bushels, behind China, which is forecast to produce approximately 1.8 billion bushels in 2026/27, up 1% from last season. Major producing regions tracked in the report:

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• -  China – approximately 1.8 billion bushels, up 1%
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• -  Europe - approximately 508 million bushels, down 16%
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• -  South America - approximately 127 million bushels, up 5%
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• -  Mexico - approximately 47 million bushels, down 1%
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• -  Canada - approximately 19 million bushels, down 2%

Listen: The Outlook Report, Unpacked

Prefer to listen? We used AI to turn this year’s Industry Outlook Report into a conversational audio overview, highlighting key data, trends and takeaways from across the U.S. apple industry.

Source:  USApple August 21, 2026 news release