Alison Davie represents the best of what Canadian agriculture stands for today. She’s smart, progressive, and uses environmentally-friendly technology to counter the impact of climate change. She’s also part of a flourishing, 80,000-member-strong cohort of female farm operators as identified in the 2021 Census of Agriculture.

Farming on 3,000 acres near Taber Alberta, Alison Davie and her husband Michael have doubled their potato acres since taking over the family farm 12 years ago. They have been active contributors to an expansion trend that has seen total processing acreage in the province increase from 45,000 to 60,000 acres over the last five years. 

They plant 650 acres of potatoes as part of a one-in-four year rotation cycle that includes seed canola, timothy hay, wheat, flax, faba beans and garlic. The Davie’s harvest will be split between contracts with Lamb-Weston at Taber and McCain Foods at Coaldale where their potatoes are transformed into French fries. The industry is looking forward to the opening of the McCain Foods $600 million plant this summer, a doubling of current capacity.  

Theirs is a story of diversification, of measured growth, and of the steady development of sound agronomic and management skills. And of planning that can cover contingencies, right? 

Well, not everything. In 2025, a new upending global order is sweeping the land, not at all like those friendly chinooks that blow across southern Alberta in the winter. Rather, U.S. President Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods, potentially as of March 4, are sending disruption chills through every sector of Canadian agriculture. 

As Davie shares from her seat as chair, Potato Growers of Alberta (PGA), the most immediate strain is on Alberta’s seed growers who are ready to ship $30 million of seed, about 60 per cent of 2024 production to U.S. customers. 

“The seed business is tough,” adds Terence Hochstein, executive director, PGA. “I don’t know how they will fare against tariffs. I’m worried about these farmers.” These specialty growers provide specific varieties for specific customers. It’s not possible for them to pivot seed production on a month’s notice, and often not even on a year’s notice. 

Processing growers (fry and chip) selling into the continental marketplace will also feel the impact. Thanks to irrigation, Alberta potato growers are very productive, harvesting on average 390 cwt/acre, the highest in Canada. And thanks to the presence of six processors -- McCain Foods, Lamb-Weston, Cavendish Farms, PepsiCo-Frito Lay, Old Dutch and Shearer Foods -- the sector as a whole has thrived and expanded.

But the reality is that these six companies also have plants south of the border. As Hochstein explains, “Consumer demand has softened in the last year. The QSRs – quick-service restaurants – have not bounced back after COVID and the cost of food has restrained growth.” 

Another often-not-talked-about part of the Alberta industry is the fresh side. The Little Potato Company operates plants on both sides of the border and any tariffs would also be devastating to their part of the industry.

Coming into 2025, there’s been an overage of production, which translates to the processors being in the driver’s seat for this year’s round of negotiations. Time is ticking for contracts to be signed prior to finalizing inputs for spring planting. 

“In a word, negotiations will be tough,” says Hochstein. “The only settled contract, as of press time, is in Washington State.”

The national picture, as reported by Ag Canada in November 2024, is that 96 per cent ($48 million) of seed, 93% ($457 million) of fresh and 91% ($2.4 billion) of processing potatoes were exported to the U.S. in 2023/24.

During the same period, Canada’s potato and potato product imports from the U.S. totaled $456 million, which represented 85% of imports from all countries valued at $534 million. Relative values of total imports by sector were $440 million in processed potatoes (frozen French fry at $126 million and other processed at $314 million) and $94 million in fresh potatoes (table stock at $80 million and seed at $14 million). 

On the other side of the country in Prince Edward Island, potato growers’ concerns run just as deep because they exported about $183 million PEI fresh potatoes to the U.S in the last year on record. 

Bill Zylmans, a potato and vegetable grower from Richmond, British Columbia is chair of the Canadian Potato Council with an overview of the entire industry.

“We’re all losers on this tariff front,” he says. “There’s no benefit to either side.” 

Surprisingly, the National Potato Council in the U.S. has been reaching out to the Canadian Potato Council to share concerns, with informal meetings at the January 2025 Potato Expo. From their side of the border, growers are worried about receiving both Canadian potato seed and Canadian fertilizer in time for planting. 

“Contract negotiations are very problematic,” says Zylmans. “There are no contracts signed in Canada. They are in a stalemate.” 

All parties with vested interests are waiting for more clarity. Normally, growers would confirm their contract, go to the bank to finance inputs of seed and crop protection products, then get in the field to plant. The timing and sequence of that ritual are becoming out of sync this year. 

“There is a glimmer of green light,” says Zylmans. “The 30-day reprieve has given us a window to get inputs on the road before any tariffs hit.” 

If there are any early lessons from the recent turn of events, it’s that Canada must become more self-supporting in its food systems. Zylmans is heartened by messaging from some retailers pledging allegiance to supporting local, but he knows that only one thing counts: “It’s all about price.” 

A quarter of the way into a supposedly enlightening 21st century, disquieting murmurs from history underline the current unease. Chronicling the leadup to the French Revolution in 1775, author Charles Dickens’ memorable prose resonates loudly. 

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us.”

Today, A Tale of Two Cities might well foretell A Tale of Two Friends. And the story?  Disorder reigns.