Tired of trade war trauma? Looking at cross-border statistics – what’s coming in and what’s shipping out – helps to better understand market uncertainty regarding Canadian horticultural commodities. At least that seems to be the story for Ontario asparagus and Maritime wild blueberries. 

Ontario grows most of Canada’s asparagus, with Québec not too far behind and that’s more than enough to go around. In fact, historically, about 65 per cent of Ontario’s crop gets exported to the U.S. 

Statistics reveal that Ontario asparagus acreage has declined in the last five years to 3,300 harvested acres, a right-sizing to match consumer demand. Thanks to the University of Guelph’s breeding efforts, their rust-resistant, high-yielding Millennium asparagus has dominated the market in recent years. Its story points to the very real benefits of researcher and grower cooperation, and highlights the necessity for ongoing trials to deliver next-generation genetic improvements. Such innovative progress cannot be left to the whim of trade winds. 

As news of the U.S. trade war broke, growers began to worry that tariffs might impact asparagus sales to the U.S. this spring, but as Marc Wall notes, exports to the east coast of the U.S. are booming.

“Export markets are very strong; we can’t keep up with orders going across the line. We are very thankful for the CUSMA trade deal. There is no question, American buyers want Canadian-grown products,” says Wall, chief operations officer, Sandy Shore Farms Limited, Port Burwell, Ontario.

In February 2025, year-on-year Canadian imports of fresh and chilled asparagus had decreased by 12.8 per cent according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (www.oec.world) This was the result of lower imports from Mexico (down C$1.6M or 13.6%), United States (down C$50.9K or 42.9%). The reasons behind these declines are varied but what can be said with certainty is that the Canadian marketplace is primed and hungry for this year’s crop of the first field vegetable to be harvested each spring.

Welsh Bros., a familiar presence at the Ontario Food Terminal, sell 50 acres of Scotland, Ontario asparagus at the wholesale market.

“I’m optimistic about the 2025 crop as long as no tariffs come into play,” says Charles Welsh. “We have good consumer support for the first spring crop.

Maritime wild blueberries 

Asparagus growers aren’t the only ones heavy on cross-border trade. Statistics for the Maritime wild blueberry sector tell a similar story. For Benny Nabuurs, a 35-season veteran farming near Cardigan and the president of the PEI Wild Blueberry Growers, U.S. trade is doubly uncertain. First, from the ongoing threat of tariffs, and second, with worries that the blueberry marketplace can change between breakfast and dinner.

“Fifty per cent of our production is exported to the U.S.,” explains Nabuurs. In 2023, the most recent reporting year available, Statistics Canada showed the U.S. to be the most popular export market for Maritimes and Québec wild blueberries with $168 million shipped cross border. Until now, the three largest processors have enjoyed the benefits of unhindered trade while using multiple plants in the Maritimes and two in Maine. 

Combined, the companies operate six freezing and packaging processing plants in the Maritimes and three in Maine. East Coast Wild Blueberries is located in Glenholme, NS. Jasper Wyman & Sons is headquartered in Morell, PEI. Oxford Frozen Foods is headquartered in Oxford, NS with additional plants in Parrsboro, NS, Bois-Gagnon, NB and St-Isadore, NB. Oxford’s U.S. plants in Machias and Cherryfield and a Wyman plant also located in Cherryfield, highlight the borderless integration within the industry.  Wild blueberries move back and forth across the Maine border based solely on harvesting window and plant capacity considerations. 

An industry glitch that puts wild blueberry growers at additional risk is that, currently, the processing companies unilaterally dictate prices at the end of each harvest. It’s a decision that comes long after growers have already invested the two years of inputs required to bring their fruit to market. These inputs include fertilizer, crop protection products, mowing, labour and machine harvesting. For Nabuurs specifically, this meant not receiving 2024 crop pricing notice until November 1 of last year.

“If we don’t like the price, there’s nowhere else to ship our product,” says Nabuurs. “There’s an imbalance of power.”  

Independent of the arrival of the trade dispute, the PEI Wild Blueberry Association began a comprehensive cost-of-production study which was partly funded by the provincial agriculture department. Their primary need was data to support grower claims that existing crop insurance coverage was inadequate. Additionally though, four years of declining prices that took the industry from $1/pound to 42 cents/pound underlined an urgent need for factual arguments to advance price negotiations with processors. Based on an average yield of 3200 pounds/acre, growers need 61 cents/pound just to break even today.  

On the other side, processors produce about 30 per cent of their wild blueberry needs on land that they own, so current production costs are well known to them. The study’s results may not have come as a surprise but did add considerable weight to discussions aimed at improving the growers’ bottom line.

A closer look at Maine’s stake in this industry shows that ongoing crop sustainability is being questioned as both droughts and flooding have been taking a toll. In 2024, USDA provided $15 million to research the economics of irrigation and mulching. Aside from nominal production in Michigan’s upper peninsula, Maine produces the wild blueberries currently being grown in the United States. This fact should not be overlooked considering the heavy U.S. reliance on Canadian-grown wild blueberries to meet existing pie filling and bakery ingredient processing needs south of the border.  

Not surprising then that delayed investment and contingency budgeting are adding to horticulture market and pricing uncertainty. To many it appears there’s no end in sight on either side of the border. According to Thomas Barkin, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve, “With all this change, a dense fog has fallen. It’s not an everyday ‘forecasting is hard’ type of fog. It’s a ‘zero visibility, pull over and turn on your hazards’ type of fog.”

But what about the facts?

A need to trade 

Although asparagus and wild blueberries may be only two of our many horticulture commodities that engage in cross-border trade, they are strong examples of real American and Canadian trade needs. They represent two sets of partners who have willingly come to rely on interdependent relationships, involving growers, processors, and retailers. So, the facts say there will be trade. Let it be free trade. 

The Grower is Digging Deeper behind this story and speaking with Benny Nabuurs, president of the Prince Edward Island Wild Blueberry Growers. Benny explains concerns about the current industry structure for wild blueberries and processing capacity that spans the Canadian border into Maine. 

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