The U.S. agricultural trade deficit is widening in 2025, driven by shifting global trade dynamics and rising import demand. This is the conclusion of Faith Parum, economist, writing for the American Farm Bureau Federation on June 20^th. Fruit exports are down $12.09 billion (14%). Vegetable exports are down $4.79 billion (6%)

USDA’s Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: May 2025 report provides projections for exports and imports, offering insight into current trade trends. From January through April, the United States imported $78.2 billion in agricultural products while exporting just $58.5 billion. This $19.7 billion deficit is the largest ever recorded for the first four months of a year and signals that the 2025 deficit could surpass previous records.

Understanding the Trade Mix

In FY 2025, USDA projects that horticultural products, including fruits, vegetables, nuts, wine and other alcohols, will account for approximately 49% of total agricultural imports by value. These products reflect consumer preferences for variety and year-round availability and highlight the role of trade in maintaining a stable food supply. Strong U.S. demand for high-value, consumer-ready products, many of which are not widely produced domestically, has driven up import values, while a large share of U.S. exports remain lower-value bulk commodities, contributing to the growing trade imbalance.

While imports continue to rise, U.S. agricultural export value, after reaching record highs in 2022, has since declined. A strong U.S. dollar and high labor costs have made American goods more expensive for foreign buyers, weakening global competitiveness. At the same time, trade barriers, retaliatory tariffs and ongoing disputes have limited access to important markets such as China and the European Union. Some foreign buyers are turning to lower-cost suppliers such as Brazil and Argentina. These challenges point to the need for the United States to pursue new trade agreements and strengthen existing ones to expand export opportunities.

Source:  American Farm Bureau Federation June 20, 2025 Market Intel