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Expert doubts Trump will meddle in Columbia River Treaty

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These days, with political leaders in both Canada and the U.S. pounding their chests over trade and resources, rhetoric is running high. 

 

But away from the din, another story is emerging. 

 

In British Columbia, the collegial approach being taken to modernize the storied Columbia River Treaty is giving hope, and maybe even a template, for continued Canada-U.S. cooperation. 

 

While U.S. President Donald Trump and his Canadian adversaries duke it out, well-managed Columbia River water is surging efficiently and effectively between the two countries, thanks to the treaty. It’s benefitting producers and consumers on either side of the border. 

 

“There’s a saying that whisky is for drinking and water is for fighting,” says Glen Lucas, British Columbia Fruit Growers’ Association policy consultant and former general manager. “This treaty is there to prevent fighting and give stability.”

 

The Columbia River Treaty dates back to 1961. That’s when Canada and the U.S. agreed on an extensive dam and water management system for the 2,000-kilometre-long flood-prone Columbia River, the second longest river in Canada and sixth longest river in the U.S. 

 

In a capsule, the Americans needed downstream flood control, a reliable water supply and electrical power for the northwest. For its part, Canada needed a way to manage and profitably harness the mighty Columbia’s flow, to sell hydro-electricity.

 

So the two countries came together, strategically built dams in Canada and the U.S. (all paid for by the U.S.), and the treaty was enacted.

 

The negotiation process, however, had huge flaws. Indigenous people were not involved in the planning, despite the exterminating impact of dams on the salmon fishery, a keystone of the Indigenous way of life. 

 

And agriculture? It was mostly forgotten. 

 

But over time, the bones of the treaty have proved to be sound for both countries. 

 

For example, irrigation water made available through the treaty has been instrumental in boosting horticulture’s fortunes in Washington state, helping it become America’s leader in apple production. 

 

On this side of the border, Canada benefitted from what was called the “Canadian Entitlement” – one-half of the value of the hydro-electricity generated by releasing water from dams in Canada that subsequently created electricity in the U.S.    

      

So with an eye to the future and nearly 60 years of experience with the original treaty behind them, negotiators set out in 2018 to modernize the document. Last July 2024, they announced an agreement in principle had been reached.  

 

The terms call for Canada to receive additional compensation, some of which policy consultant Lucas hopes will be used to support the apple sector in the Okanagan, which competes in Washington State’s shadow. 

 

Time will tell; the agreement has a one-year implementation period in which details such as compensation distribution are being worked out.

 

But overall, the agreement -- and the drive to modernize it -- is being held out by many pundits as an example of the cooperation that’s possible between Canada and the U.S. It’s not about who won or lost in the modernization…at least, not right now. Doubts have risen though about whether Trump in particular will be able to resist meddling in the treaty’s modernization.

 

But based on the benefits that accrue to the U.S., Lucas thinks the treaty’s safe.   

 

“Trump won’t touch this,” he predicts. “It’s really a good deal for the U.S.”

            

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Submitted by Owen Roberts on 2 February 2025