Guadalajara, Mexico’s third-largest city, is the capital of Jalisco, a state famous for tourists and tequila. Agriculture is a big part of the local economy, known for avocadoes, berries and tomatoes. Unexpectedly, it has also become a destination of choice for eager Canadian ministers looking to diversify markets for potatoes and other commodities.  

After Prime Minister Mark Carney’s meeting in Mexico with President Claudia Sheinbaum in September 2025, the leaders stood at the podium and heralded a “new era of elevated cooperation.” Hot on Carney’s heels, federal agriculture minister Heath MacDonald travelled to Mexico City then on to Guadalajara accompanied by an impressive entourage including four provincial agriculture ministers. 

Ramping up the government’s push, Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s minister for Canada-U.S. trade and intergovernmental affairs, will lead a trade mission from February 15-20, 2026 with Guadalajara again on the itinerary. While the list of participants joining him has yet to be announced – interested parties including small businesses had until November 28 to apply– it’s very likely representatives from the Canadian potato industry will be on board.

“We’ve been talking about the risks of tariffs on our fresh potato sector since January 20,” says Pamela Kolochuk, CEO, Peak of the Market, Winnipeg, Manitoba, referring to the 2025 inauguration day for U.S. President Trump.  “Forty per cent of our fresh potatoes go to the U.S. and when tariffs were in place for three days in March, our members paid $220,000 in tariffs so that we didn’t strand our customers.”  

The gnawing worry is about the threat of future tariffs and how to mitigate that risk. 

“The current trade situation continues to threaten our existence,” says Kolochuk. 

This new trade reality has spurred the Canadian Potato Council (CPC) to explore how to harmonize phytosanitary measures with Mexico which is placing a huge emphasis on testing and “clean” trade.  

“Mexico is a doable market for Canada,” says Bill Zylmans, CPC chair and a potato grower from Delta, British Columbia. “We need to build a stronger working relationship so that we could potentially sell fresh potatoes from most provinces and seed potatoes from western Canada.” 

Emphasizing a pan-Canadian approach, Zylmans and his board are working closely with the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) which has been tasked to negotiate with its Mexican counterpart, Senasica. Any potential trade agreement will realistically take two to three years to hammer out, full stop. 

There’s history to overcome here. During the 1990s, Zylmans sold seed potatoes to Mexico, trucking the load through Tijuana. Logistically, it was a straight line south from British Columbia. Other western Canadian growers also participated in that seed potato trade, until relations soured on which country’s laboratory test results would be recognized for trade purposes. There’s been virtually no potato trade between the two countries for almost a decade.

A world of its own 

Fast forward to 2025 and a previously stable North American trade environment is being dismantled by current U.S. trade policy. If Canada aims to step up its trade with Mexico, there’s an immediate need to understand this vast Spanish-speaking neighbour to the south that’s home to 132 million people. It’s a country embraced by the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, with a geography that spans 31 states in between and local cultures dating back millennia. The country’s tourism tag line is key: a world of its own.

Perhaps it’s the case that market weight is a benefit when dealing with such complexity. A key announcement of Minister MacDonald’s agricultural trade mission was the JBS agreement to ship beef to 43 Costco stores in Mexico. The trade deal between the largest meat processor in the world, a Brazilian multi-national, to sell Canadian beef to one of the world’s top 10 grocers, an American multi-national, could foretell a model. Whatever the details, clarity in phytosanitary rules comes first.

Any consideration of a Mexican market should take heed that the National Potato Council laboured for 25 years to gain access on May 11, 2022. At that time, U.S. growers were granted permission to sell to the entire Mexican market, not just the pre-existing access within 26 kilometres of the border. For the period October 2023 to September 2024, the USDA reported that U.S. potato sales to Mexico totalled $135 million, a 20 per cent increase over the previous period. 

An important footnote to this agreement, however, is that the eventual opening was linked to U.S. approval of avocado exports from Jalisco, confirms Amado Vázquez Martínez, editorial coordinator for Tierra Fértil, based near Guadalajara.  

Reality check 

U.S. potato trade aside, Mexico has its own potato industry. In fact, 8,600 growers are represented by the National Confederation of Potato Producers of the Mexican Republic (CONPAPA). In 2025, they planted 63,000 hectares (155,000 acres) of potatoes. At a March 2025 association meeting, president Gildardo González Saldivar told producers that Mexican border states such as Sinaloa and Sonora would be allowed to ship fresh potatoes to the U.S. for the first time. 

According to Grupo Consultor de Mercados Agricolas (GCMA), a Mexican agricultural consultancy firm, Mexico is self-sufficient in potato production with average yields exceeding 30 tons per hectare. Potatoes are considered a strategic crop for Mexico’s food security and imports remain minimal, limited mostly to processed potato products and certified seed. 

Describing the recent deal for Canadian beef imports, Martínez says, “Applying a similar framework to potatoes and to other commodities would require clear phytosanitary access, well-defined logistics protocols and value-added certification since these crops are more sensitive and subject to stricter import controls in Mexico.”  

Martínez continues: “This explains Mexico’s cautious approach toward Canada’s case:  any future access for Canadian potatoes must guarantee zero introduction of pests or diseases absent in Mexico, particularly in key producing regions such as Chihuahua, Sinaloa and the state of Mexico where potato production holds internationally recognized sanitary status.”  

With potatoes currently flowing into and out of Mexico, it’s unclear whether Mexican retailers would welcome Canadian potatoes. That said, all eyes remain focussed on the 2026 negotiations for renewing the Canada-US-Mexican agreement (CUSMA) or T-MEC as it’s known in Mexico. 

On the ground

Greg Palmer, vice-president of trade and market development, Canadian Produce Marketing Association, noted at a logistics summit, that trade flows are shifting, with the potential for both Canadian potatoes and apples to be shipped to Mexico.  

“There may be a niche market for certain varieties or sizes,” says Palmer, who has visited grocery stores in Guadalajara. The import window for apples is January through July, when premium varieties such as Gala, Honeycrisp and Fuji could be welcomed depending on specific sizes and differentiated packaging. 

On the ground, global logistics provider C.H. Robinson has announced a new cross-border service to reduce shipping costs between Mexico, the U.S. and Canada by relying on artificial intelligence to determine mode, route, carrier, and delivery schedules. Such developments are giving hope to the Canadian Potato Council which is encouraging the federal government and its agencies to open the Mexican market.

For its part, CFIA is re-energizing its relationship with Senasica as part of the Canada-Mexico Action Plan 2025-2028 unveiled by the Canadian and Mexican leaders at their September 2025 summit. In a statement to The Grower, the agency confirms, “Canada is seeking market access for horticulture products such as cherries and blueberries and for easing import requirements for apples from eastern Canada. As next steps towards this, Mexico will perform risk assessments on those commodities to determine their import requirements. The timeline from Mexico on this has not yet been confirmed.” 

Summarizing the potential for future trade, Zylmans concludes, “We’re doing our due diligence and then it will be up to individual businesses, wherever they are in Canada, to figure out the economics and logistics.” 

With files from Owen Roberts.