The United Potato Growers of Canada (UPGC) has released its end-of-year 2023 analysis, pointing to a competitive marketplace in North America and a resilient industry in the face of weather disruptions.

Victoria Stamper, general manager, UPGC, provides the following breakdown.

Fresh sector

It is estimated that about 89,000 acres were planted in Canada intended for the fresh sector, generating approximately 29.6 million potatoes available for fresh sales.

In North America, we continue to see a trend from red to yellow, which translates to improved yields, even if acreage remains stable. With the potato surplus in the United States, prices have dropped significantly there; however prices have been holding well so far in Canada, although there have been more recent reports of downward pressure.

Idaho is trying to recover lost table market sales after two years of shortages, especially for russets and we've seen this in very aggressive pricing since September 2023. These very low prices in the Pacific Northwest could lead to a drop in Canadian exports to the U.S. compared to last year.

Processing sector

Here are examples of continued expansion:  Idaho (Lamb Weston, American Falls), Washington (Simplot, Moses Lake), Oregon (Simplot, Kraft/Heinz plant in Ontario, not the province but in the state of Oregon) Alberta (McCain, Coaldale). However, the earliest plant to be online will be in spring 2024 in Idaho, not soon enough to take much of this year’s surplus.

Hollow heart and rot have been seen in russets in Eastern Canada and Maine due to the abundant rainfall received throughout the growing season, and even up to harvest in some areas, there are also reports of low gravities. Growers have tried to leave low-lying areas in the fields, but long-term storage problems may remain. UPGC does expect a tight supply of processing potatoes in eastern Canada this year.

North American processors may try to regain market share thanks to the additional supply available and the difficulties of the European harvest, as global demand continues unabated.

Contract negotiations have begun in Washington state and are very positive to date.

Seed sector

Most regions of Canada reported very good seed harvests, avoiding heavy precipitation in the east and the very hot temperatures in the west.

If processors end up reducing contracted acreage for next year as is being indicated, what will be the impact on the seed business? We need to keep seed growers in business.

As in other sectors, some costs have stabilized, such as fertilizer and fuel, but overall, the cost of growing potatoes is the highest it's been in years.

With regards to the U,S,, five out of the top seven seed-producing states registered decreases in overall acreage. However, this decrease was offset by an almost 4,000 acreage increase in Idaho, most of which is attributed to three types of russets and and more than 2500 acres in “other” varieties according to the USDA seed acreage report.

In Canada, certified seed acres decreased in all provinces in 2023 except Alberta, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, from 57,353 acres to in 2022 to 56,272 in 2023. That’s a total decrease across the country of 1081 acres. We should note that there was a decrease of just over 2100 acres in the Top 50 varieties and an increase in “all other” varieties of approximately 1,050 acres that makes up the difference year over year, indicating perhaps an overall reduction in seed acres but more experimentation with new varieties at a smaller scale.

Although harvest in Canada, and North America in general, was good for seed this year, there may still be regional and varietal shortages as were seen in the 2022-23 crop years.

Source:  United Potato Growers of Canada December 4, 2023 newsletter